iPhone/Apple is dead….Long live Apple/iPhone

@apple announced the arrival of new iPhone X on September 12th, 2017.

10 years ago, I had witnessed the arrival of a technology marvel. Compare the original iPhone with Nokia or Blackberry, which were “the market leaders” back then.

VS

The iPhone was a piece of art. We all started lining up in front of apple stores. @apple was a $25Billion market cap company. Fast forward 10 years and 8 more models of the iPhone, the valuation has shot up to $825Billion. Yes that’s a $800,000,000,000 valuation added in 10 straight years. That is a $219, 178,082 valuation added EVERY SINGLE DAY!! Most of it was because of the ever-changing, ever-improving iPhone. A billion of them have been sold so far. I can’t think of any product which has added so much value EVER in human history!

Now…compare iPhone X to Samsung 8. (for more on this comparison, read Michael Irving’s post here http://newatlas.com/iphone-x-samsung-galaxy-s8-specs-comparison/51345/)

Colors

Is there a big difference? NO.

I was shocked to see the iPhone go from being the only one of its kind to being almost indistinguishable from other phones.

I thought, “the iPhone is dead”. I have been an @apple fan since 1991 and this was the first time, in all those years, that I thought, the game is over. Apple will see the same fate as all other innovators of their times.

Then…I went back to see their website and found this video. See the beginning 2 Mins (a soulful speech by Steve jobs himself) and if you don’t want to see further, jump to 32:00 Mins and watch from there for a few mins.

https://www.apple.com/apple-events/september-2017/

That woke me up. @apple is a truly innovative company. We will soon be abandoning our current glass phones  that come in rectangular white boxes for a simple watch. That is when you will realize the genius of Apple.

I think the next wave @apple will unleash something on the lines of an iWatchPhone.

Why do we need a box? I am sure they have enough technology today already to expand the watch screen to the size of a phone. (Samsung has already applied for a patent https://www.sammobile.com/2017/02/26/slide-out-expandable-displays-join-foldable-smartphones-in-latest-samsung-patents/)

Apple will not be the first to make the newest technology. But Apple will make it THE best!

So, I don’t see we holding a phone in our hand at all. We tie the iWatchPhone. 

And that will be another billion apple products sold.

And apple will cross $1 TRILLION in valuation.

And once again, we will chant, long live iPhone !!

We have come a long way from 1922 (first film on a mobile phone)

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Chanakya’s 3 questions v/s Aristotle’s First Principles

For some time now, I have been trying to find an answer to a question that has been on my mind. Which is more important- Chanakya’s 3 questions or Aristotle’s First principles?

For a brief understanding of these two scholars, Aristotle was born 384 B.C and Chanakya in 371 B.C, around the same time period. For more on Chanakya , read (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chanakya)

Both were in one way, or another, connected to King Alexander. Aristotle taught him and Chanakya strategized against him along with King Puru.

Aristotle taught on the basis of “first principles, as ‘the first basis from which a thing is known’. More simply, he strongly believed in searching for the core or going to the basics of everything.

Chanakya taught 3 questions –

  1. Kimartham karishyami,
  2. Kim pratiphalam,
  3. Aham saphalyam prapnomi?

The Sanskrit translation is as follows 

  1. Why am I doing it?
  2. What might the results be?
  3. Will I be successful?

Were they both trying come up with same process? Which one is better – First principles or 3 questions?

Leading to more questions…

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Giri Devanur

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2020 predictions

I had predicted in 2015 that Facebook will have 2Billion users (prediction number 5 in the blog below). It has already happened!!

http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/27/technology/facebook-2-billion-users/index.html

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Technology Predictions for 2020

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Is SAP worth $200 Billion?

Its been a interesting few months for SAP investors. Stock has jumped from $72 on 6/27/2016 to $103 on 5/12/2017. MCap jumped from $70Billion to $127Billion!!

That opens a possibility to think is the stock headed to a market capitalization of $200 Billion?

I think there are 3 mega trends which may make this happen.

  1. Upcoming SAP HANA upgrade super cycle – We are seeing that all customers (approximately 55,000 ECC users) will switch to HANA for sure in next few years.
  2. SAP is winning big time in cloud growth – 330,000 customers with a lot more growth left. I see SAP having ONE million customers in 5 years
  3. P/E earnings of SAP is so low at 31.5, its unbelievable – compare this with P/E of Salesforce  is 343.7!! Workday other competitor’s P/E  -50!! Workday lost $105Million on a $436M revenues.

Finally, SAP is THE king of enterprise system. I would be surprised if any other system can close financials the way SAP can execute.

I think there will be a few more acquisitions SAP will do in next 12-24 months, may be WorkDay. I would expect SAP to hit a $200 Billion in market cap before 2020. I am sure Hasso Plattner /@BillRMcDermott and others at SAP will be smiling!

Cheers,

Giri Devanur
CEO – Ameri100 Inc.

http://www.ameri100.com
http://www.linkedin.com/in/giridevanur

PS: Don’t treat this as a stock advice. Never invest in any stock unless you research thoroughly yourself!

#sapphirenow

@SAPPHIRENOW

 

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Will Artificial Intelligence kill your job?

Answer is Yes and No.

All of us have been seeing many articles recently about the coming armageddon of job losses. Some have even predicted that almost 75-80% of all jobs will go away. Time for us to take step back and use our “natural intelligence” before falling for this chicken-little syndrome.

I was introduced to the fascinating world of AI by my professor MGV in my engineering days in 1990! By then, he had done his Phd in AI 🙂

So, just remember. AI is not new by any stretch of imagination. It’s been in the works for last 35-40 years.

Will it change the world? Yes for sure.

Will it kill all the jobs? No for sure.

Here is what will happen like all technology waves.

1/3 of the smarter people will find really exciting careers in next wave of technologies, be it in programming, digital-manufacturing, bio-engineering and so.

1/3 of the average skilled people will lose their high paying jobs and move to lower paying jobs. The salary cuts will be like 30%-50%. The transition for these people will happen but its tough.

The bottom 1/3 people (what I mean is people who refuse to learn, take additional courses in new areas, update their skills on a daily/weekly/monthly and annual basis AND people who are lazy to upgrade their knowledge), will have the toughest period. The brutal wave of job losses will hit this crowd. Remember in early 19th century US had half a million women telephone operators in AT&T alone!!

This has happened in various old-age industries…will continue again in ALL industries. The only difference this time, tsunami will start in our own IT industry.

Question is which group do you belong. The smart, the average or the dinosaur?

Jack Welch had told this ::“Change before you have to”

Giri Devanur

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How we got to NOW – Steven Johnson

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Normally, I read books very fast. Once in a while you stumble upon a book which is so insightful, you “study” instead of reading. One such book is a book by Steven Johnson’s  How we got to NOW 

I am amazed by the clarity with which Steven has weaved multiple strings of science history into coherent and yet simple 6 streams, which changed modern world.

Here is a quick summary of 6 inventions which changed everything for modern human society.

1. Glass – The natural pieces of glass were first found in deserts of Libya Desert and the processes how merchant families of Venice figured how to make glass. That was the real “silicon valley”. Surprising link from glass to printing press is amazing reading. From there on a series of innovations like books, telescope and so on all starts with glass.

2. Cold  – Who would know that in 1800’s the biggest export from Boston was ice and the largest and most profitable market for ice was Mumbai, India?? Thats an amazing piece of history there. Ice-trading was mastered by a guy named Fredric Tudor who eventually figures how to export frozen ice from lakes of Boston around the world. He went bankrupt twice and arrested during this process. He made $100M (in todays dollar terms) finally. Ice making paved way to refrigeration and hence frozen food which eventually changed US and world.

3. Sound – Interesting reading about how Thomas Edison patented his “phonograph” while a french man named Eduard Leon Scott who was a great scientist but not a marketing genius like Edison has already patented “Phonautograph”. I am sure he died poor. Inventors never make money, but inventors with a marketing streak makes it all. There are some interesting connections between how invention of recorded sounds lead to sonograms and eventually to ultrasound which changes the male-female ratio in china due to male obsessed societies. A little far fetched, but when you see in scientific context, it sounds true though.

4. Clean – Its amazing to read about a New Jersey doctor John Leal, who came up with the idea to chlorinate the water to kill bacteria.  Can you imagine anywhere in the world drinking safe clean water without chlorination? This man must have single handedly changed the course of human history by saving millions may be billions of babies since 1908. And he did not patent his invention, or build a product and sold it etc. He made this the first true “open-source” invention for the benefit of human kind. What an amazing story.

5. Time – How many times in a day do we look at our iphones and watch to see time. I did not know that all the clocks in all the cell phones are linked and connected to a series of low altitude geo synchronous satellites, which maintain the global timing!! A lot of history about time keeping. Steven doesn’t discuss many other cultures which kept time tracking very accurate. However he writes about a railway engineer William Allen, how he creates the US time zones to manage the railroad traffic!!
6. Light – This is a heart wrenching story. 

Did you know that Manhattan of New York was a very big slum – Half a million people living in 15,000 units. Almost like Dharavi of Mumbai. I pondered if Dharavi could be transformed someday like Manhattan. How an experiment called “BlitzLicht” (aka flash light) in 1888, lead to flash lights of photographs which showed the plight of poor immigrants living in the slums of NYC!! This chapter goes on to describe how the experiment of usage of a wasted gas to be used in Neon lights which changed the face of Las Vegas 🙂

7. Added Bonus of Time travel : – Where do we go from here. Almost 150 years back, Charles Babbage and surprisingly Lord Byron’s daughter (who was a “programmer” in those days!!) predicted what today’s google, iTunes or hyper text – all that too in one footnote.

I started pondering after finishing this book….my 3 questions,

  1. Where we came from – Human life’s origin
  2. What is the purpose of life?
  3. Who created life?

If you have answers for these 3 questions, you know how to reach me!

Cheers,

Giri Devanur

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11 Rings – Phil Jackson – Mindfulness of a Zen master

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I read Phil Jackson’s 11 Rings again recently. Some of the lessons are profound. Here is a simple presentation with those 11 lessons of a zen master of basket ball. Greatest coach of all times.

 

11 RINGS – SOUL TO SUCCESS

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You are who you hire

What’s the secret of a truly successful organization?. Its a cliche – Its all about hiring great people. I have a simple rule. If you hire a great team member, you dont have to manage them.

We tried to solve the challenge of “how to hire a great candidate” while we were building a product company. We quickly learned a lot of lessons on why, what and how of “recruiting A-class players”. Everyday in Ameri100 we are working hard to add more “A-players”

I recently came across this book by Geoff Smart and Randy Street – “Who”. This book is fantastic read if you are an entrepreneur, CEO or a manager of a team. Here is the summary pdf.

WHO PPT

Are you “A-class” team member?

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Buck Up, Suck Up . . . and Come Back When You Foul Up: 12 Winning Secrets from the War Room

Recently I read this book by @JamesCarville,@PaulBegala. Even though I may not agree the authors political angle, they have done a great job of identifying what are the key factors that will make a political campaign or business a success.

See the attached pdf

BUCK UP, SUCK UP summary

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Hillary Clinton – Digitally disrupted?

All techies could visualize a scenario like this one below.

Hillary was approached by Obama to be the secretary of state. She accepts and comes back to her office. Her “IT Team” walks in and asks “Madam – Would you like 2 blackberrys one your personal and one state department”. She thinks for just a second and says “I want just one – its so easy to carry one blackberry”.

hillary-clinton-sunglasses-blackberrry-kevin-lamarque-ap

IT team goes back. Sets up a server in the basement and links the state department server.

Rest is history.

HRC gets digitally disrupted. Election lost.

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